Postflop Coach — free heads-up postflop poker trainer中文 · 日本語 · Deutsch

Tournament Postflop

Lesson 27 · Short stacks, bubbles, and ICM pressure · 24 practice questions

Short stack = low SPR

Tournament stacks are short, and a short stack means a low SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) before the flop is even dealt. With 20bb a single raised pot leaves an SPR of about 3 to 4; with 12bb it is under 2. At those depths there is no room for three streets of careful play: one bet and one raise put all the chips in. Hand values shift accordingly. Top pair with a good kicker and overpairs are strong enough to play for stacks, because villain commits with worse pairs and draws; the pot is also large compared with what you have left, so folding a decent made hand gives up too much. The hands that lose value are the speculative ones — small pairs on bad boards, weak draws — since there are no implied odds behind.

Example. Flop 8♥5♦2♣ at 12bb effective: villain bets 4 into 6 and you hold Q♣Q♠. There is nothing to wait for — raise and get the chips in while worse pairs and overcards still pay. At 8bb on K♥7♦2♣ with 9♥9♦ facing 3 into 4 you need 30%, and a pocket pair beats every unpaired hand he bets: continue, by calling or moving in. But at 15bb on 9♥8♦7♣ with 4♥4♣ facing 4 into 6: an underpair with no draw on a board that hits everything — fold; short stacks do not make weak hands strong.

Common mistake: playing a 15bb stack like a 100bb stack — calling the flop 'to see the turn' with a hand you would have to fold there. Decide on the flop whether the hand is going all the way.

Low-SPR commitment

When the remaining stack is about the size of the pot or smaller, every decision is a commitment decision: if I put this bet in, am I calling off the rest? The price answers it. A jam of 1.5 times the pot asks for 38%; a pot-sized jam asks for 33%. Against a short stack's jamming range — top pairs, draws, overcards, worse pairs — an overpair or top pair top kicker has far more than that, so it calls without agonizing. Strong draws prefer to be the one who moves in: a nut flush draw with overcards has good equity when called and picks up the pot when villain folds, and at low SPR a raise is all-in anyway. What does not commit is a hand that beats only bluffs on a board that hits the jammer's range.

Example. SPR about 1.5 on 8♠5♦2♣: villain jams 18 into 12 and you hold J♥J♠. You need 18/(12+18+18) = 38%, and an overpair has far more against a short stack's jamming range — call. Turn K♥8♦3♣2♠ with K♣J♥ facing a pot-sized bet of 12 into 12 with little left behind (need 33%): top pair with a good kicker calls, and that call is the commitment. Flop Q♠8♠3♦ with A♠K♠ facing 6 into 10: raise all-in — nut flush draw and two overcards. But 9♥9♦ on A♠K♦7♣ facing a jam of 16 into 12 (need 36%): an underpair to two big cards beats almost nothing that jams — fold. A♥J♥ with no pair on K♠8♦4♣ facing the same jam: fold.

Common mistake: folding an overpair to a short-stack jam 'because he must have it'. At SPR 1.5 he jams many worse hands, and the price needs only 38%.

ICM pressure

In a cash game every chip is worth the same. In a tournament it is not: the chips you lose cost you more than the same number of chips won would gain, because busting ends your chance at every later payout. This effect is called ICM (Independent Chip Model), and it is strongest on the money bubble and at big pay jumps. The practical result is that you need more equity than the pot odds say before you risk your stack, and the closer the spot, the clearer the fold. ICM does not mean folding everything: it changes marginal calls for your tournament life, not value bets, and not decisions where you are far ahead. It also does not apply when no pay jump is near — at 20bb in the middle of a tournament, top pair still calls.

Example. On the bubble, flop K♠9♦4♣: villain jams 20 into 14 and you hold T♥T♦. By chips alone you need 20/(14+20+20) = 37%; an underpair to the king is close even there, and with pay jumps this large it is a clear fold. With huge pay jumps on J♠T♦4♣ holding Q♣Q♦ facing the same jam: by chips this overpair would call, but on a coordinated board where you are sometimes crushed, survival is worth more — fold. Compare the turn K♥8♦3♣2♠ at 22bb with no bubble, K♣J♥ facing 12 into 12 (need 33%): call. And on the bubble with 7♥6♦ on Q♥J♦4♣ facing a c-bet: fold — no fancy floats when busting is this expensive.

Common mistake: using ICM as a reason to fold strong hands everywhere. It is a reason to pass on thin all-in calls near pay jumps — nothing more.

Key takeaways

• 15bb or less with an overpair or top pair and a good kicker → raise or call it off; do not fold for a price of 33% to 38%.
• Nut flush draw or combo draw at low SPR → raise all-in yourself.
• Underpair or ace-high facing a jam on a high board (need about 36%) → fold.
• On the bubble or at a big pay jump, facing a jam with a marginal hand → fold, even if the chip price (37%) is close.
• No pay jump near and 20bb or more → top pair calls a pot-sized bet as usual (need 33%).

Sample drill from this lesson

FAQ

Key terms in this lesson

Pot Odds · Implied Odds · Equity · Range (Poker Hand Range) · Continuation Bet (C-bet) · Value Bet · SPR (Stack-to-Pot Ratio) · Pot Commitment · Float · ICM (Independent Chip Model)

All 29 lessons