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Thin Value

Lesson 22 · Marginal hands that still want a bet · 36 practice questions

Thin value defined

A value bet makes money when worse hands call it more often than better hands do. A thin value bet is one where that margin is small: you hold a marginal made hand — weak top pair, second pair, a small overpair — and only a slice of villain's calling range is worse. The test is not 'am I ahead of his range?' but 'when he calls, am I ahead more than half the time?'. Two things make the answer yes more often: a small bet, because a small bet is called by more weak hands, and a villain who has already shown weakness by checking. Thin bets are usually a third to a half of the pot — the size that a worse pair can still pay.

Example. River K♥9♦4♣2♠7♥, pot 16, villain checks and you hold K♣T♦. Better kings often bet the river themselves, so his checking range is mostly weaker kings, nines and pocket pairs — and enough of those call a small bet: bet. River A♥K♦7♣3♠2♥ with A♣Q♦ (pot 14) is the same decision: worse aces and kings call. Compare 6♥3♦ on 9♥6♦4♣2♠K♥ (pot 16, first to act): third pair is called only by hands that beat it — check.

Common mistake: checking back every one-pair hand on the river 'because I might be beaten'. You might be — but if worse hands call more often than better ones, the check gives away money every time it happens.

When to bet thin

Thin value depends on who you are betting into and on how the hand was played. The best targets are capped ranges: when villain checks a street on which his strong hands would have bet, those strong hands are mostly gone, and what remains is medium pairs that can call but not raise. A turn that went check-check is the clearest signal. Calling stations are the other target — against them second pair can bet, because they pay with third pair and ace-high. Against a tight player the threshold moves up rather than disappearing: top pair with a good kicker still bets after he checks, second pair does not. And the board must cooperate: when the river completes obvious draws, the hands that call a bet are no longer worse than yours.

Example. River Q♠7♦3♣8♥2♦, pot 14: you called the flop c-bet, the turn went check-check, and you hold Q♥T♣ first to act. His turn check removed most better queens, and if you check he will often check back the pairs that would have called: bet. River J♥T♦4♣2♠8♥ against a calling station with T♠9♦ (pot 20): bet. But on T♣6♦2♠3♥7♣ with T♥8♥ (pot 14), after your turn bet was called, the seven completes 9-8 and 5-4 — a second bet is called mainly by better tens and straights: check.

Common mistake: betting thin because of the hand alone. The same top pair is a bet after check-check and a check after your turn bet was called on a card that completes draws.

Check medium hands

When you cannot name worse hands that call, the bet is not a value bet, however decent your hand looks — it is a bluff that folds out nothing better. Those hands are checks: underpairs on high boards, third pair, second pair out of position on the raiser's board. Checking is not giving up. A medium hand still wins at showdown, and after your check villain sometimes bets worse, so the plan continues by price: call small bets, fold to big ones. The same discipline applies when a thin bet gets raised. River raises are rarely bluffs, and a hand that was only just good enough to bet is near the bottom of what you can hold.

Example. River K♥Q♦J♣9♠2♥ with 7♣7♦ (pot 16, first to act): every hand that calls beats a pair of sevens — check. After checking, the price decides. With K♥9♥ on K♦Q♠8♣5♥2♦ facing 5 into 16 you need 5/(16+5+5) = 19%, and top pair with a weak kicker beats every bluff: call. With Q♥9♥ on A♦K♠9♣5♥2♠ facing 11 into 16 you need 29% and third pair loses to every ace and king he bets: fold. And with K♣9♥ on K♥8♦3♣2♠5♥, after your thin bet is raised (14 to call, pot 18, need 30%), folding is the standard line.

Common mistake: betting a medium hand 'to find out where I am'. If only better hands call, the check told you the same thing for free.

Key takeaways

• Villain checks the river and you hold top pair with a decent kicker or an overpair → bet a third to a half of the pot.
• The turn went check-check, or villain is a calling station → second pair and weak top pair can bet too.
• Third pair, an underpair, or any hand that only better hands call → check and take the showdown.
• After checking, facing a small bet (need 18% to 20%) → call; facing two-thirds pot with third pair (need 29%) → fold.
• Your thin bet gets raised on the river (need about 30%) → folding is the standard line.

Sample drill from this lesson

FAQ

Key terms in this lesson

Range (Poker Hand Range) · Continuation Bet (C-bet) · Position (IP vs OOP) · Value Bet · Capped Range · Thin Value Bet · Calling Station

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