Fold equity is the extra value a bet or raise gains from the times villain folds. Together with your hand’s own equity when called, it decides whether a bluff or a semi-bluff makes money.
A pure bluff lives on fold equity alone. Its break-even point is simple: the bet divided by the pot after the bet. Betting 20 into 20 needs villain to fold 20 ÷ (20 + 20) = 50% of the time; a two-thirds bet of 8 into 12 needs 40%; a 1.5x-pot overbet bluff breaks even at 60% folds. A semi-bluff needs fewer folds, because it can also win by hitting: with a flush draw and an OESD you raise for fold equity and still have plenty of outs when called.
Fold equity depends on the opponent and on the story. A calling station gives you almost none — against a fold frequency near 0% every bluff loses the whole bet. A board that favors villain’s range gives little, because his range holds hands that will not fold. Multiway pots cut it sharply: if each of two players folds half the time, both fold only about a quarter of the time. And the river ends it for draws: once the draw has missed, the bet has to stand on its own as a pure bluff.
Worked example
FAQ
How do you calculate fold equity?
For a pure bluff, divide your bet by the pot after your bet: that is how often villain must fold for the bluff to break even. Bet 20 into 20 and he must fold 50% of the time. Whether he folds that often is a read on him and on the board.
Does a semi-bluff need fold equity?
Less than a pure bluff. It wins when villain folds and when the draw comes in, so the two add up; a combo draw with 15 outs barely needs folds at all, while a bare gutshot is almost a pure bluff.